\n
<\/p>\n
As Ed pointed out this morning<\/a>, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east has been moving faster than anyone expected, including obviously the Russians. A couple of days ago, Ukrainian forces retook the town of Balakliia<\/a> and another small town called Volokhiv Yar. From there they moved east and took control of Kupyansk.<\/p>\n Ukrainian troops already in Kupyansk. \u2014 Illia Ponomarenko \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n That was a significant win because it meant Ukraine was in control of the rail lines which supplied Russian outposts to the south, in particular Izyum. Here\u2019s a crude map showing the location of Kupyansk and Izyum.<\/p>\n I tweeted this map a few days ago. Kupyansk is the yellow circle, and Izyum the red circle. By taking K the Ukr cut off the logistics to Izyum making it undefendable. pic.twitter.com\/ZCEwdRWQ8C<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Dr Mike Martin \ud83d\udd36 (@ThreshedThought) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Saturday, Ukrainian forces surrounded and retook Izyum.<\/p>\n Ukrainian special forces pictured on the outskirts of Izium\u2026\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 pic.twitter.com\/RpIlqypZMX<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Ed noted in an update<\/a> to his story earlier that Izyum had been liberated and only 24 hours after Russia claimed it was sending reinforcements to the area it reversed course and claimed it was \u201cregrouping\u201d its forces to the south. Regrouping in this case means running away as quickly as possible. Here\u2019s the video of the Russian announcement.<\/p>\n This is the russian MoD acknowledging the withdrawal from Kharkiv and the strategically important cities of Izyum & Kupyansk. The straight face during the lie of \u2018regrouping of forces\u2019 is priceless. pic.twitter.com\/yAKpd32s72<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Mattia Nelles (@mattia_n) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n This is already being widely mocked. Same clip but with a different background.<\/p>\n You don\u2019t need translation here pic.twitter.com\/9fRVMiYXlx<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Illia Ponomarenko \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@IAPonomarenko) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The Post<\/em> has a story up about all of the developments<\/a>.<\/p>\n As the advancing Ukrainian troops regained lost territory with shocking speed, liberating the town of Balakliya and raising their blue-and-yellow flag over the city of Izyum, jubilant Ukrainians and officials in Kyiv and Western capitals indulged in a daring hope: maybe the grinding, stalemated war was swinging their way\u2026<\/p>\n The pullout from Izyum, which Russia had used as a resupply hub for its offensive through the eastern Donbas region, marked one of the biggest setbacks for Russia since its troops rolled into Ukraine in February.<\/p>\n With Russian troops out of Izyum, Russia\u2019s ability to fulfill its objective of seizing the entirety of the Donbas region \u2014 the only publicly declared goal of Putin\u2019s proclaimed \u201cspecial military operation\u201d \u2014 is now in doubt, said Kirill Mikhailov, a Kyiv-based analyst with the Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian military research group.<\/p>\n Izyum is an important command and supply hub for Russia\u2019s northern front and Russia\u2019s only major bridgehead on the right bank of the Donets River, he said, and losing it would eliminate an entire front \u2014 the northern front \u2014 in its efforts to conquer Donetsk.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n One sure sign of how badly things are going for Russia is how spitting mad Russian nationalists have become over these defeats.<\/p>\n \u201cA major defeat,\u201d Igor Girkin, a hard-line former commander of separatists in Ukraine, lamented in a pro-Russian military Telegram channel\u2026<\/p>\n Girkin complained bitterly about extravagant celebrations for City Day in Moscow, where Putin visited a new martial arts center and presided over the openings of a section of new highway and a giant, 460-foot tall Ferris wheel called the Moscow Sun.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Here\u2019s Putin opening the Ferris wheel while his army is in retreat.<\/p>\n While the #Russian<\/a> army “heroically” retreats from the #Kharkiv<\/a> region, Putin opens a Ferris wheel in #Moscow<\/a>.<\/p>\n The tsar simply has more important things to do. pic.twitter.com\/RI9ng9y8TH<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n And, in what seems like a perfect metaphor for the day, the Ferris wheel apparently broke down a few hours later.<\/p>\n The Ferris Wheel that Putin opened in Moscow this morning? It\u2019s already broken\u2026<\/p>\n pic.twitter.com\/wBrEenf3Dc<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n There\u2019s definitely going to be a lot of pressure mounting on Putin after all of these sweeping victories and Russian retreats. The question becomes what will a desperate Putin do now that his invasion is looking like an embarrassment? Open source intelligence analyst Oliver Alexander suggests he could actually become more dangerous than before.<\/p>\n At this time the Russian military has just about run out of options in regards to throwing new forces at this growing hole in an attempt to stop the offensive. <\/p>\n At this point even a “mobilization” won’t do anything to help, that takes time and this is moving too fast.<\/p>\n \u2014 Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n He could ramp up the economic war on Europe which he\u2019s been fighting by cutting of the gas supply.<\/p>\n Russia is responsible for supplying 20% of Europe’s natural Uranium and 26% of their enrichment services. This will have a compounding effect on the already high energy prices.<\/p>\n \u2014 Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Both of these options are economically nuclear options, as they will also have a large impact on Russia, but Putin is running very low on options.<\/p>\n \u2014 Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The bottom line is that he\u2019s not going to admit defeat. He\u2019s going to find some way to up the stakes after what is shaping up to be a very bad weekend.<\/p>\n Personally, I see Russia as more dangerous at this moment than any time in the last 7 months. They are cornered, crippled both militarily and economically and running very low on options. <\/p>\n This won’t end with Putin just graciously accepting defeat.<\/p>\n \u2014 Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) September 10, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Two clips to wrap this up. First, another Russian intercept giving some idea of what it was like to be on the other side of the Ukrainian couteroffensive.<\/p>\n\n
Russians basically offered no resistance. pic.twitter.com\/4c2UqjEk1w<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n