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I never thought I would say this, but this week has convinced me that the Trump Administration is possibly the first administration in decades to execute a politico-military strategy and shape events rather than just bounce, pinball-like, from one flashing light to another. Bear with me as I lay out what I think is going on, and feel free to excoriate me in the comments if you disagree.<\/p>\n
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Let\u2019s start with a Politico article headlined, \u201c5 charts show China\u2019s oil dilemma after US strikes on Iran – POLITICO<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s attack on Iran takes a big economic bite out of one of America\u2019s chief rivals: China.<\/p>\n Almost all of Iran\u2019s exported oil, and more than half of Venezuela\u2019s, went last year to China.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udcc8 5 charts that show China\u2019s oil dilemma after U.S. strikes: https:\/\/t.co\/ue8oSXJTUr<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/XxWxxAUjJS<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 POLITICO (@politico) March 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n President Donald Trump\u2019s latest attack on Iran<\/a> takes a big economic bite out of one of America\u2019s chief rivals: China.<\/p>\n Over the span of two months, the Trump administration has removed the leaders<\/a> of two countries that both shared China as their most important crude oil customer. Although China buys oil from nations all across the Middle East, Iran was second only to Saudi Arabia as its supplier last year, according to a POLITICO analysis of data provided by market research firm Kpler.<\/p>\n Almost all of Iran\u2019s exported oil, and more than half of Venezuela\u2019s, went last year to China, which remained one of the only purchasers of goods from the two heavily sanctioned nations. The two countries combined represented some 17 percent of China\u2019s overall oil purchases \u2014 a meaningful share for the world\u2019s largest importer of crude oil.<\/p>\n The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Saturday said it was \u201chighly concerned\u201d by the attacks on Iran and called for an end to the war. The squeeze on China\u2019s energy supply also comes just weeks before Trump is slated to hold a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Let\u2019s take as a starting point that the current operation against Iran is probably driven as much by China as it is by regional security concerns. Iran has a \u201c25-Year Cooperation Program<\/a>\u201d with China, committing China to invest an estimated $400 billion<\/a> across Iran\u2019s energy, banking, telecommunications, and infrastructure sectors. Iran is a member of the Belt and Road initiative, and a freight rail\u00a0corridor<\/a> now connects the Iranian city of Qom to Yiwu, China.<\/p>\n Like Russia, Iran is a useful idiot of an ally for China. Probably well aware of what happened to Wilhelmine Germany when it shackled itself to a stupid and unstable ally, that would be the Austro-Hungarian Empire, China has kept Iran at arm’s length. For instance, China has a naval base in Djibouti<\/a>, but it has made no move to intervene in the fighting. The Chinese government publicly debunked<\/a> the reports that it was selling anti-ship missiles to Iran. The promise by Russia and China to send naval units to exercise with the Iranians, billed as \u201cMaritime Security Belt 2026,\u201d(see U.S. Rejects Tehran’s Latest Deal and All Signs Suggest That Regime Change Is on Trump’s Agenda \u2013 RedState<\/a>) never materialized for the obvious reason that China is not going to take any action that might cause it to become embroiled in the ongoing conflict.<\/p>\n Oddly enough, Iran’s “alliance” with China cuts two ways. Iran is threatening to stop traffic in the Straits of Hormuz (SPOILER ALERT: they tried this nonsense in 1987 and 1988 and got their clocks cleaned by the U.S. Navy in Operation Earnest Will and Operation Praying Mantis.) About half of China’s oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz, so Iran’s threat is a lot less than credible unless China wants to reprise the role of Cleavon Little taking the sheriff hostage in Blazing Saddles.<\/p>\n
Iran has a single use beyond supplying cut-rate oil to China\u2019s economy, that is to provide a distraction to the U.S. Iranian operations effectively handed us defeats in two wars. Iranian explosive-formed penetrators killed hundreds of American soldiers and Marines. Iran\u2019s sponsorship of Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis has created conflict and disrupted international trade. In case of a real war, a nuclear-armed Iran could create a massive distraction to any U.S. effort in the Indo-Pacific and put the Suez Canal as well as Gulf oil fields at risk.<\/p>\n We are in the early stage of a rollback of Chinese influence. From an oil perspective, Venezuela and Iran account for 17 percent of China\u2019s oil imports. Not much you say. Making up that oil volume at below-market rates is difficult. Add to that the fact that the supply of Russian oil smuggled by \u201cdark fleet\u201d tankers is also coming to an end. President Trump and India\u2019s Prime Minister Narendra Modi have agreed that India will stop buying<\/a> bootleg Russian oil. In fact, only three weeks ago, India seized a tanker carrying Russian oil; Indian Coast Guard Seizes Three Sanctioned ‘Dark Fleet’ Tankers Carrying Illegal Iranian Oil…to India \u2013 RedState<\/a>. This has caused a significant disruption<\/a> in the supply of Russian oil to China.<\/p>\n More than a dozen tankers loaded with Russian Urals oil are sailing toward Asia or idling along the route, a sign of producers racing to get cargoes closer to China as India pulls back from the trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n These vessels, carrying a combined 10 million to 12 million barrels of oil, are spread across the Indian Ocean, and off the coasts of Malaysia, China and Russia. Five of them are indicating \u2018for orders\u2019 or \u2018China for orders\u2019 as their status, according to data intelligence firm Kpler, a category that usually means they don\u2019t yet have a specific buyer or discharge port.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Beyond the loss of oil, China is suffering a loss of face and prestige anywhere the U.S. and China compete. Iran is complaining that their Chinese-made missiles and radar are basically Temu products.<\/p>\n BREAKING : Reportedly Iran has expressed displeasure over the utter failure of the Chinese air defense system in the ongoing war. 3 HQ-9B air defence systems supplied by China to Iran were destroyed by the U.S. & Israel in Iran during the initial hour of the strikes. pic.twitter.com\/6RFrcXPhRt<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Baba Banaras\u2122 (@RealBababanaras) March 3, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n China\u2019s response to Iran\u2019s plight has been to send hopes and prayers.<\/p>\n Chinese FM Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi.#China<\/a> supports\u00a0#Iran<\/a> in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, and national dignity, and supports Iran in upholding its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.<\/p>\n China\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/7Z8SqSIchE<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Lin Jian \u6797\u5251 (@SpoxCHN_LinJian) March 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n In fairness, China\u2019s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called the US-Israeli attack \u201cunacceptable\u201d and condemned the \u201cblatant killing of a sovereign leader and the incitement of regime change,\u201d in a call with Russian FM Sergey Lavrov.<\/p>\n First, an immediate cessation of military operations. Prevent the spread and spillover of war and prevent the situation from getting out of control. China attaches great importance to the security of Gulf countries and supports them in exercising restraint.<\/p>\n Second, a prompt return to dialogue and negotiations. All parties should strongly encourage peace and prevent war, and urge relevant parties to return to the track of dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible.<\/p>\n Thirdly, a joint opposition to unilateral actions. Striking sovereign countries without authorization of the UN Security Council undermines the foundation of peace established after World War II. The international community should send a clear message against any regression to the law of the jungle.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Two thoughts on this. First, there is no public record of China or Russia calling in the U.S. ambassador to complain. Their action is limited to bitching to each other over the phone. Second, Russia, which invaded East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), Afghanistan (1979), Georgia (2008), and Ukraine (2014), complaining about “unilateral actions” makes you want to throw up in your mouth.<\/p>\n Looking more broadly, we see Venezuela, also a part of the Belt and Road Initiative, but with deep ties to China, including about 500,000 Chinese immigrants. While I won\u2019t go so far as to say that we have a friendly regime in Caracas, we do have a humbled, non-hostile one. China can still buy oil, but they have to buy it at market rates; see Venezuela Promises to Be a Geopolitical Game Changer If Trump Can Convert a Triumph Into Victory \u2013 RedState<\/a> and Trump’s Campaign Against Venezuela Is Jumpstarting the Monroe Doctrine \u2013 RedState<\/a>.<\/p>\n To make matters worse, China was evicted from ownership of two strategically important port complexes through U.S. influence: the Panama Canal and Port Darwin, Australia; see Chinese Influence Suffers Major Body Blow As They’re Tossed Out of Key Port Facilities on Two Continents \u2013 RedState<\/a>. Trump has made moves<\/a> to do the same thing with the Chinese-owned megaport of Chancay, Peru, where China has established extra-territorial rights in the mode of the \u201cforeign concessions<\/a>\u201d in Imperial China.<\/p>\n In summary, I think the operation in Iran is more correctly viewed as an outgrowth of the Department of War\u2019s 2026 National Defense Strategy rather than a one-off event. We don\u2019t know what the outcome will be for the Iranian government, but it will probably agree to a lot of stuff to make the pain stop. There is a very good chance that within three months, two key Chinese clients will have been taken out of play. China’s narrative that they are the emergent power supplanting the U.S. has taken a beating. In the next three years, I think we will see the same strategy play out in the Western Pacific, where Obama and Biden allowed China to purchase entire nations via \u201celite capture\u201d; see Why Did Obama Just Give the South China Sea to the Chinese Communist Regime? \u2013 RedState<\/a> and China Seeks to Buy Eight Pacific Island Nations While Joe Biden and His State Department Are Comatose \u2013 RedState<\/a>.<\/p>\n
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\nCue background music for the last paragraph:<\/p>\n