Incumbents in both parties are under pressure as the polls begin to close in the first 2026 midterm primaries, as voters in North Carolina, Texas and Arkansas weigh in on the debates within their parties and set the stage for the battle for control of Washington this fall. <\/p>\n
One incumbent is guaranteed to lose in these states, since redistricting forced Texas Democratic Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee into a member-versus-member primary that\u2019s being fought along generational lines. <\/p>\n
The two are locked in a tight race with about two-thirds of the expected vote in, with Menefee holding a slight lead but just shy of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. In Texas, the top two candidates move to a head-to-head primary runoff election if no one gets a majority. <\/p>\n Other incumbents face serious primary challenges, too.<\/p>\n Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s bid for another term is in deep trouble in Texas, where he is the only incumbent House Republican running for re-election in the state who did not get President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Crenshaw trails state Rep. Steve Toth by 19 points with almost 60% of the expected vote in.<\/p>\n In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee is locked in a tight rematch of the 2022 primary that sent her to Congress against Durham County Commission member Nida Allam. Foushee has a 2-point lead over Allam with about 90% of the projected vote in. <\/p>\n Allam has tried to cast Foushee as not progressive enough on issues including Israel and the role of artificial intelligence, and Allam\u2019s allies have blanketed the airwaves with attacks on Foushee\u2019s past support from pro-Israel groups, arguing that she\u2019s in the pocket of special interests and big business.<\/p>\n Foushee has pushed back, framing herself as a productive progressive with the experience and seniority needed to counter the Trump administration. She has cast the attacks over outside money as hollow given Allam\u2019s backing from outside groups, too.<\/p>\n While much of the national attention is focused on Texas\u2019 competitive Senate races on both sides of the aisle, there are a wealth of competitive House races down the ballot. <\/p>\n Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales\u2019 re-election bid has drawn the most attention in recent weeks, as he faced allegations of having had an affair with a former staffer in his congressional office who subsequently died by suicide. He’s narrowly leading pro-gun activist Brandon Herrera in a rematch of a 2024 primary, which Gonzales narrowly run after Herrera forced him to a runoff. <\/p>\n And Democratic Reps. Julie Johnson and Sylvia Garcia face primary danger as well. Garcia is running above 50% with about two-thirds of the expected vote counted in her district, as she seeks to defeat a challenge from state Rep. Jarvis Johnson and prevent the race from going to a runoff. But Johnson trails former Rep. Colin Allred by about 11 points with about 60% of the vote in. <\/p>\n Key primaries Tuesday will also shape the House battleground districts that will decide control of the chamber in the fall.<\/p>\n Republicans are looking for nominees to take on Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez in heavily Latino South Texas, which swung hard toward Trump in 2024, while Democrats are looking for a standard-bearer against GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a neighboring seat. <\/p>\n Cuellar is only winning a narrow majority of the Democratic primary vote in his district, as Ricardo Villarreal, a physician, is pulling about 40% support. The Democrat was recently pardoned by Trump, who subsequently lamented the congressman\u2019s \u201clack of loyalty\u201d in the aftermath of that pardon, and Republicans redrew the lines here to their benefit during last year\u2019s redistricting.<\/p>\n The winner of that primary will face off against Trump-backed Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who is projected to win the GOP nomination in the 28th District<\/p>\n While Gonzalez is projected to win his primary in the 34th District outright, his opponent in the November battleground is still undecided. Trump-backed Army veteran Eric Flores leads former Rep. Mayra Flores with almost two-thirds of the vote, but it’s not clear yet whether the Republican primary will require a runoff. <\/p>\n And in the 15th District, currently represented by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, Tejano musician Bobby Pulido will be the Democrat’s nominee after a victory over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. <\/p>\n Republicans will also anoint their candidate in North Carolina\u2019s 1st District, who will square off against Democratic Rep. Don Davis in another key race this fall. <\/p>\n Meanwhile, there are open seat primaries across Texas to watch, too, particularly where Trump has weighed in to shape the future of the Republican Party in Congress.<\/p>\n In one of them, residents are poised for a lookalike transition: The congressman from Texas’ 22nd District, Troy Nehls, is retiring at the end of the year, and his twin brother, Trever Nehls, is projected to win the GOP primary in the deeply Republican district.<\/p>\n Former Justice Department attorney Jessica Steinmann, who now works at the America First Policy Institute, won the Republican nomination and will likely become the next member of Congress from Texas\u2019 8th District.<\/p>\n Mark Teixeira, the Trump-endorsed former Major League baseball slugger making his first bid for political office, is projected to win the Republican primary for Texas’ 21st District, which means he\u2019ll likely cruise through the general election in the Republican-dominated district this fall<\/p>\n And in North Carolina, GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards has held onto his party\u2019s nomination for the 11th District, sending him to face off with Democrat Jamie Ager in November.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n![\"President](\"https:\/\/media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com\/image\/upload\/t_fit-760w,f_auto,q_auto:best\/rockcms\/2026-03\/260301-al-green-elex-ww-2026-11e1ed.jpg\")
<\/picture>![\"Valerie](\"https:\/\/media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com\/image\/upload\/t_fit-760w,f_auto,q_auto:best\/rockcms\/2026-03\/260303-Valerie-Foushee-rs-43df0d.jpg\")
<\/picture>