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Tuesday\u2019s primaries across three states saw incumbents wobble, general election matchups form and runoffs extend intraparty fights.<\/p>\n
They also highlighted broader lessons about the state of national politics, from President Donald Trump\u2019s enduring power over the GOP to the disagreements over ideology, generation and strategy that continue to divide Democrats. <\/p>\n
In Texas, where the Republican Senate primary is heading to a May 26 runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the question of whether Trump will finally take a side is swirling over the race after other races demonstrated his power.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, NBC News projected early Wednesday morning. And a night of close calls and losses for House incumbents in both parties was full of nail-biting signs for other establishment figures preparing to go before voters later this year.<\/p>\n
Here are key takeaways from Tuesday\u2019s primaries: <\/p>\n
Talarico\u2019s primary victory is also a win for those pitching a populist path forward for the party that goes beyond taking on Trump. <\/p>\n
Talarico often said on the campaign trail that the fight was more about \u201ctop versus bottom\u201d than \u201cleft versus right,\u201d taking aim at a political and economic system run by billionaires. Crockett, meanwhile, took more direct aim at Trump, highlighting her clashes with the president and pitching herself as a fighter willing to take him on. <\/p>\n
The state representative criticized Trump regularly, too, but his argument went broader.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s really bout a values orientation, having a moral clarity to call out who is making people\u2019s lives harder,\u201d said Tory Gavito, a Texas Democratic strategist and president of the donor network Way to Win.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not sure we\u2019ve ever had that kind of clear, economic populist message, at least not since LBJ,\u201d said Gavito, referring to former President Lyndon B. Johnson, also a former Texas senator. <\/p>\n
Talarico\u2019s also pitched himself as a potential bipartisan unifier, while Crockett argued that she could turn out new voters who were more inclined to back Democrats. And he stressed his extensive campaign organization, noting at a recent campaign stop that his campaign had organized 22,000 volunteers. <\/p>\n
Gavito noted that while Talarico launched his campaign months before Crockett, she entered the race with higher name recognition and a national profile. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt does feel like the strength of Talarico\u2019s infrastructure mattered,\u201d Gavito said. <\/p>\n
The bitter Republican primary in Texas will drag on for another 12 weeks, as will the battle over which kinds of Republicans can thrive in today\u2019s GOP \u2014 and which kinds of Republicans can thrive in general elections, too.<\/p>\n
With GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt out of the race after facing attacks from both of his opponents, Cornyn and Paxton can now take aim squarely at each other, and they\u2019re both ready for a fight. <\/p>\n
The primary runoff will be a test over whether longtime legislators like Cornyn, a self-described \u201cworkhorse,\u201d have <\/strong>a place in Trump\u2019s Republican Party, or if the combative Paxton can rally the MAGA faithful despite his personal and professional controversies. <\/p>\n Despite both Cornyn and Paxton\u2019s chest-beating tone as they touted the first-round results, neither the longtime incumbent nor the well-known MAGA warrior was able to muster a majority of the primary vote. <\/p>\n \u201cElections are about choices, and the choice in the Republican race for the U.S. Senate is crystal clear,\u201d Cornyn said Tuesday night. \u201cI\u2019ve worked for decades to build the Republican Party, both here in Texas and nationally. I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we\u2019ve worked so hard to build over these many years.\u201d<\/p>\n Cornyn has repeatedly said that Paxton\u2019s controversies, including his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges (the state Senate acquitted him), and his ongoing divorce, will put his Senate seat at risk of flipping in November.<\/p>\n Paxton, meanwhile, said Tuesday night that \u201cchange was on the ballot.\u201d Throughout the primary, he\u2019s argued that he is better equipped than Cornyn to motivate the MAGA base.<\/p>\n \u201cTexans want new leadership. They want someone with a proven record of fighting and winning for them, and that\u2019s exactly what I\u2019m going to deliver,\u201d Paxton said, \u201cBecause for too long, John Cornyn has turned his back on us.\u201d<\/p>\n Paxton slammed the millions of dollars spent to boost Cornyn ahead of Tuesday\u2019s primary. Cornyn and his allies spent more than $78 million on ads, while Hunt and his allies spent more than $12 million and Paxton and his allies spent more than $4 million. <\/p>\n \u201cWe just sent a message loud and clear to Washington: We\u2019re not going to go quietly, and we are not going to let you buy this seat,\u201d Paxton said. <\/p>\n A win is a win. But even if one of Democrats\u2019 vulnerable incumbents emerges victorious from her House primary, these primaries came with alarming signs for Democratic incumbents and insiders, amid a rising tide of populism and generational angst in the party. <\/p>\n Two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee holds a lead of about 1,000 votes over her opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, in a rematch of a bitter 2022 primary.<\/p>\n Allam went after the incumbent as too supportive of Israel, amid rising criticism on the left of the Israeli government\u2019s conduct in Gaza and in its relations with the U.S. The challenger framed the incumbent as aligned with corporate interests. And Allam, 32, argued that she and not Foushee, 69, had the new energy needed to meet this political moment. <\/p>\n The race comes after self-described activist and agitator Analilia Mejia pulled off a major upset in a special Democratic House primary in New Jersey last month. <\/p>\n NBC News has not yet projected a winner in the Foushee-Allam race. But there are a slew of lessons to be learned in the razor-thin margin: Foushee emphasized her progressive credentials on the trail and leaned into support from colleagues to argue her experience would help the district meet the moment. And she declined support from pro-Israel groups while signing onto legislation<\/a> aimed at restricting some offensive weapons sales to Israel.<\/p>\n In Houston, newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, narrowly leads 78-year-old Rep. Al Green in their uncalled Democratic primary. Menefee directly called for turning the page and empowering a new generation of leaders, casting himself as the one able to make effective change for the district just one month after he won his seat in a special election.<\/p>\n Similar dynamics could play a role in Democratic primaries for key House and Senate seats across the country, putting incumbents and entrenched political veterans on notice.<\/p>\n President Donald Trump\u2019s endorsement remains the most valuable coin in the realm of GOP primary politics.Republicans want that endorsement. And, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, proved Tuesday night, they often can\u2019t survive standing out for failing to get it.<\/p>\n Crenshaw had criticized Trump\u2019s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and he sparred frequently with figures in Trump\u2019s MAGA movement. While Trump endorsed every other Republican House incumbent seeking re-election in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, he declined to give his imprimatur to Crenshaw<\/a>.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, Crenshaw lost his primary to state Rep. Steve Toth.<\/p>\n It\u2019s impossible to say with certainty exactly how much Trump\u2019s decision to stay out helped Toth. But there\u2019s no question that it hurt Crenshaw \u2014 or that other Republicans will keep the Crenshaw lesson in mind.<\/p>\n A slightly different dynamic played out in the Texas Senate primary. Trump endorsed Cornyn in 2020 but held back this year. Cornyn fell short of the majority he needed to win the GOP nomination on Tuesday but moved into a runoff against Paxton.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not yet clear whether Trump will pick a horse during the runoff. A person familiar with the White House\u2019s thinking and strategy told NBC News this week that Trump was likely to endorse Cornyn if he kept the race close \u2014 and the senator certainly did. Cornyn\u2019s performance could bolster the thinking that he\u2019s a lower-risk way to try to keep the Texas Senate seat in Republican hands. If Trump acts on that line of thinking, that could tip the balance in the primary runoff.<\/p>\n Trump’s picks largely did well in competitive House races too \u2014 former Major League Baseball star Mark Teixeira, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, Army veteran Eric Flores and former Justice Department official Jessica Steinman all won their primaries with Trump’s support. <\/p>\n That said, Trump\u2019s endorsement was not an absolute decider in some of Texas\u2019 crowded primary fields. In Texas\u2019 9th District, Trump-backed military veteran Alex Mealer is headed to a runoff against state Rep. Briscoe Cain. And in the 35th District, businessman Carlos De La Cruz is headed to a runoff as the second-place vote-getter despite Trump\u2019s endorsement.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s approval ratings are sliding, and polls say Americans have soured on Trump\u2019s handling of the two issues that powered him back to the White House: the economy and immigration. But Trump\u2019s political grip on his party extends to governing, too. <\/p>\n The long tail of Crenshaw\u2019s struggles and the mad dash for Trump\u2019s political endorsement means that it\u2019s unlikely that any Republican seeking re-election breaks with the president anytime soon. That\u2019s because, <\/strong>as noted above, Tuesday night made clear again that Trump still maintains his bond with Republican primary voters. That\u2019s a useful tool for keeping GOP lawmakers in line with his priorities while his allies in the party control both the House and Senate.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Trump has recently demonstrated that his endorsement can be withdrawn just as easily as it is given. The president flexed his power by rescinding his endorsement of freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., for breaking with his party and voting to nix his tariffs on Canada.<\/p>\n Coming up soon on Capitol Hill are consequential votes on a war powers resolution to limit Trump\u2019s authority to take action on Iran, potentially along with more votes to revoke his tariffs, among other things. Tuesday\u2019s results didn\u2019t add any political upside for congressional Republicans to break ranks on those items. <\/p>\n While the Democratic Senate primary in Texas has not yet been called, early returns show Talarico winning counties with sizable Latino populations, on his way to building a lead over Crockett. <\/p>\nDemocratic lawmakers face populist headwinds<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Trump\u2019s powerful endorsement<\/strong><\/h2>\n
How Trump\u2019s political picks keep his agenda on track in Washington<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Talarico did well among Latinos. What does it mean going forward?<\/strong><\/h2>\n